According to the Textile Outlook International Report No. 156 published by Textile Intelligence, a global business information company, the global textile and apparel market may continue to be weak in 2012 in view of the uncertainty of the global economy and the euro zone debt crisis that continues to undermine business and consumer confidence.
The EU economy began to recover in 2010, but the recovery is expected to be stifled in 2012. Forecasts indicate that the EU economy will hit its second bottom in 2012, with real GDP falling by 0.5%. A partial recovery is expected in 2013, but GDP is expected to grow by only 0.8%.
Feedback from European textile manufacturers on this market outlook shows that their markets recovered significantly in 2011, but that recovery slowed significantly in the latter quarter and now believe that European economic turmoil will continue to be detrimental to trade in the remainder of 2012 The impact may last longer. In fact, in the first quarter of 2012, the EU’s clothing imports dropped significantly by 12%.
The outlook for the United States is less pessimistic. GDP growth is expected to increase to 2.2% in 2012 from 1.7% in 2011, and then slightly fall back to 2.1% in 2013. However, the volume of imported clothing continues to be affected, with imports falling by 3.9% in the first quarter of 2012.
Amid the market downturn, a few Asian countries’ exports to Europe and the United States were affected in 2012, while exports grew strongly in 2011. For example, Indonesia’s textile and clothing exports increased by 18.2% in 2011, but fell sharply by 15.3% in the first quarter of 2012. In the first quarter of 2012, the value of Philippine apparel exports decreased by only 1.1%, while the full-year growth in 2011 was 11.4%. Export growth slowed in a handful of other countries.
At the same time, India’s apparel exports fell sharply by 11.9% in the 2011/12 fiscal year (ending in March 2012), compared with an increase of 4.7% in the previous year. Textile exports increased by 34.7% in the 2010/11 fiscal year.
This reflects India’s weak export prospects and India’s GDP growth forecast for 2012 has been revised downwards. In September 2011, India’s GDP was expected to grow by 7.5% in 2012, but in April 2012, the GDP growth forecast was lowered to 6.9%. In addition, in the first quarter of 2012, India’s GDP grew by only 5.3%, which was India’s smallest quarterly growth in nine years.
China has always been the engine of world economic growth, but the outlook for China is similar to that of India, with GDP growth expected to drop from 9.0% to 8.2%.
As a result, global GDP is expected to grow by only 2.1% in 2012, compared with 2.5% in 2011 and 4.1% in 2010.
Still, emerging markets, especially the so-called BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – will continue to be key to sustaining global trade growth in the coming years.
For example, in India, the domestic market value of textiles and apparel will grow by 169% during the 10-year period 2010-2020, expanding from approximately US$52 billion to US$140 billion.
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